Expected goals
performance metric used to evaluate football team and player performance
Expected goals (xG) is a statistical metric in association football that assigns a probability that each shot will result in a goal. By summing these probabilities, xG is used to estimate how many goals a team or player would be expected to score given the chances created, independent of whether those chances were actually converted.
xG values are produced by statistical or machine-learning models trained on historical shot data. Implementations differ in the data they use (for example, event data alone versus models that also incorporate positional or contextual information) and in which shot features are included; as a result, xG figures from different providers are not necessarily directly comparable.
The same general approach has also been applied in ice hockey analytics, where "expected goals" models have been used as an alternative to goals for evaluating team and player performance in a low-scoring sport.
Meaning
In association football, expected goals (xG) assigns each shot a value between 0 and 1 representing the estimated probability that the shot becomes a goal. The sum of these shot probabilities is an expected value for goals scored over a set of shots (for example, a match, season, or a player's attempts), so team and player xG totals are commonly reported alongside goals scored.
xG values are produced by statistical models trained on historical shot outcomes. Models typically include features describing the shot attempt and its context, such as shot location (often expressed via distance and angle), body part used, and type of assist or phase of play, though the exact inputs and definitions depend on the data source and provider.
As a probability, an xG value of 0.3 is commonly interpreted as meaning that shots of similar characteristics would be expected to be scored around 30% of the time over many repeated instances; it is not a statement about the outcome of any single shot.
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