Tropical cyclone track forecasting
predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours
Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next 120 hours (or five days), every 6 to 12 hours. The history of tropical cyclone track forecasting has evolved from a single-station approach to a comprehensive approach which uses a variety of meteorological tools and methods to make predictions. The weather of a particular location can show signs of the approaching tropical cyclone, such as increasing swell, increasing cloudiness, falling barometric pressure, increasing tides, squalls and heavy rainfall.
The forces that affect tropical cyclone steering are the higher-latitude westerlies, the subtropical ridge, and the beta effect caused by changes of the coriolis force within fluids such as the atmosphere. Accurate track predictions depend on determining the position and strength of high- and low-pressure areas, and predicting how those areas will migrate during the life of a tropical system. Computer forecast models are used to help determine this motion as far out as five to seven days in the future.
History
The methods through which tropical cyclones are forecast have changed with the passage of time. The first known forecasts in the Western Hemisphere were made by Lt. Col. William Reed of the Corps of Royal Engineers at Barbados in 1847.
“Tropical cyclone track forecasting” enters the record as predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours. Crown Archives preserves that source wording while asking what Tropical, cyclone and track can confirm, complicate or overturn.
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