Potential superpower

A potential superpower is a sovereign state or other polity that is widely speculated to have the potential to become a superpower–a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position and can exert influence and project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means.

The United States is currently the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus, with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one. Since the mid-2020s, China has increasingly been referred to as a superpower in its own right (including by U.S. President Donald Trump). Brazil, the European Union, India, and Russia have been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century, while Japan was a candidate in the 1980s. In spite of the perceived decline of the United States, it remains a superpower primarily due to its alliances, military capacity, soft power, and economic influence and heft.

China

China's status as a superpower has been the subject of great academic and geopolitical debate. In recent years, the view that China has become an established superpower has strengthened, framing the country as the primary rival to the United States in the 21st century. While a 2012 Lund Critical Debate at Cornell University concluded that "China is not yet a superpower", a growing number of proponents have highlighted China's modern military, regional influence, cultural export, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, and total economic and manufacturing volume as signs of global dominance in the 2020s. By the middle of the decade, prominent international figures such as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have referred to China as a superpower. However, opponents suggest that China's domestic challenges still persist: an ageing and shrinking population, lack of skilled immigration, and international concerns about its soft power status, human rights issues, lack of hard power capabilities through a global military alliance system, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.