Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum
Open-knowledge reference entry
This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland ("yes" supporters), and Better Together ("no" supporters).
Opinion polls conducted by British Polling Council members
Overview
Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population—this is a slight decline from 2007, when the Scottish National Party (SNP) first formed the Scottish Government. Up until January 2012, there was an insignificant amount of poll evidence showing majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" declined.
Polls in March and April 2014 showed opposition to independence at an average of 55% (excluding those who registered a "Don't know" opinion), compared to 61% in the period before December 2013. During September 2014, the month of the referendum, the poll results appeared to narrow further—as of 11 September, the average opposition to independence stood at 51%.
A poll by Survation in April 2014 suggested that a high turnout in the referendum would be likely: 75% of respondents indicated that they were certain to vote in the referendum, compared to 63% for the 2015 United Kingdom general election.
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