Sub-replacement fertility
total fertility rate that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.2 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2024, the global average fertility rate was around 2.2 children born per woman.
Replacement-level fertility in terms of the net reproduction rate (NRR) is exactly one, because the NRR takes both mortality rates and sex ratios at birth into account. As of 2010, about 48% (3.3 billion people) of the world population lives in nations with sub-replacement fertility. Nonetheless, most of these countries still have growing populations due to immigration, population momentum and increased life expectancy. This includes most nations of Europe, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Russia, Iran, China, India, the United States and many others. In 2024, all European Union countries had a sub-replacement fertility rate, ranging from a low of 1.0 in Poland and Lithuania and 1.1 in Latvia, Estonia and Spain, to a high of 1.5 in Slovenia, Croatia, Denmark and Ireland, 1.6 in France and 1.7 in Bulgaria.
“Sub-replacement fertility” enters the record as total fertility rate that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous. Crown Archives preserves that source wording while asking what Sub-replacement, fertility and total can confirm, complicate or overturn.
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