Keynes–Tinbergen debate
Open-knowledge reference entry
John Maynard Keynes and Jan Tinbergen engaged in an exchange of letters in which Keynes initially commented and Tinbergen responded. This conversation was subsequently expanded upon in a book review by Keynes in 1939, which Tinbergen replied to in 1940, followed by a final remark from Keynes in the same year. This discourse is commonly referred to as the Keynes–Tinbergen debate. It was in the field of econometrics.
Tinbergen's work
Tinbergen's work, titled "Statistical Testing of Business-Cycle Theories, vol. I, A Method and its Application to Investment Activity," centered on using the multiple correlation technique to explain fluctuations in total investment, investment in residential building, and investment in railway rolling stock. He sought to statistically test various economists' theories of business cycles by allowing economists to specify these theories, with the statistician's role being to compute regression coefficients and assess the relative quantitative importance of the predetermined variables. However, it was noted by subsequent observers that Tinbergen's method left room for subjective judgment in deciding whether an explanatory variable should be retained or discarded. In this regard, Tinbergen did not provide a systematic methodology for dealing with such issues.
Keynes's work
In September 1939, John Maynard Keynes turned his attention to reviewing two extensive articles on studies conducted by the League of Nations.
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