2011–12 Australian region cyclone season
cyclone season in the Australian region
The 2011–12 Australian region cyclone season was a below average tropical cyclone season, with 7 cyclones forming rather than the usual 11. It began on 1 November 2011, and ended on 14 May 2012. The regional tropical cyclone operational plan defines a "tropical cyclone year" separately from a "tropical cyclone season"; the "tropical cyclone year" began on 1 July 2011 and ended on 30 June 2012.
The scope of the Australian region is limited to all areas south of the equator, east of 90°E and west of 160°E. This area includes Australia, Papua New Guinea, western parts of the Solomon Islands, East Timor and southern parts of Indonesia.
Tropical cyclones in this area are monitored by five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs): the Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane; TCWC Jakarta in Indonesia; and TCWC Port Moresby in Papua New Guinea. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issues unofficial warnings for the region, designating tropical depressions with the "S" suffix when they form west of 135°E, and the "P" suffix when they form east of 135°E.
Seasonal forecasts
During each tropical cyclone year, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre (BoM), the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and partners issue seasonal forecasts for the Australian region and its various subregions. Since a tropical cyclone can move through a region, the actual number of tropical cyclones in a region include any that form in or move into a region from another.
Bureau of Meteorology
In October 2011, ahead of the tropical cyclone season starting on 1 November, the BoM issued seasonal forecasts for the whole Australian region, one for each of the subregions Western, North-Western, Northern and Eastern Australia with each one covering the whole tropical cyclone year. For each forecast they took into account, the current neutral ENSO conditions to weak La Niña conditions that had been observed during that summer. For the whole region they predicted that there was an 80% chance that the season would be above average.
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