Center squeeze
spoiler effect favoring extremists in some multi-round election systems
A center squeeze is a kind of spoiler effect shared by rules like the two-round system, plurality-with-primaries, and ranked choice voting. In a center squeeze, the majority-preferred and socially optimal candidate is eliminated in favor of a more extreme alternative in an early round, while there are still spoilers. Systems with center squeeze are sometimes called centrifugal ("center-fleeing") because they encourage political polarization.
Candidates focused on appealing to a smaller base of core supporters can "squeeze" broadly popular candidates trapped between them out of the race, by splitting the first-preference votes needed to survive earlier rounds. This effect was first predicted by social choice theorists in the 1940s and 50s, and has since been documented in various countries using plurality-style electoral systems.
Famous examples of center squeezes include Alaska's 2022 special election (where Nick Begich III was eliminated in the first round by Sarah Palin), as well as the 2007 French presidential election, where moderate liberal François Bayrou was eliminated by left-wing Ségolène Royal, allowing the right-wing Nicolas Sarkozy to win the second round.
Overview
Center squeezes are a kind of spoiler effect in which the majority-preferred candidate is eliminated before the final round of an election. Candidates focused on appealing to a small base of core supporters can squeeze Condorcet winners out of the race, by splitting the first-preference votes needed to survive until the final round.
By Black's median-voter theorem, the candidate who appeals most to the median voter will be the majority-preferred candidate, which means they will be elected by any method compatible with majority-rule. However, in methods that strongly prioritize first preferences, these candidates are often eliminated early on because they aim for broad appeal rather than strong base support.
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