Bellwether (politics)

A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the smaller region might predict the eventual result in the larger region.

Overview

In politics, a bellwether can apply in a metaphorical sense to a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a popular vote that mirrors the result on a national scale. An electoral bellwether can be a ward, precinct, town, county, or other district that accurately reflects how a geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers change over time and sometimes can only be accurately identified in retrospect, with election cycles with major shifts sometimes called "realignments" that shake up the status of which areas are bellwethers. Bellwethers can also differ by the type of elections: a bellwether in a general election can differ from a party primary bellwether.

Specific countries

Australia

In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election. Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016.